New Housing Permits Soar!

Housing starts fall, but permits soar

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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Home construction fell in December, government data showed Wednesday, while the number of building permits issued in the month rose.

Construction of new homes fell to an annual rate of 557,000 during the month, down 4% from the revised November rate of 580,000, the Commerce Department said.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected December housing starts to decline to an annual rate of 572,000.

But starts were up 0.2% versus the 556,000 rate in December 2008. It was the first year-over-year increase since March 2006, when starts rose 5.6%.

The decline in new home construction was led by a 6.9% drop in single-family activity, which offset gains in the multi-family sector.

"While starts registered another weak month, they remain within a range that has held for more than a year," said Adam York, an economist at Wells Fargo.

Analysts said the drop in construction activity was due in part to the weather.

Temperatures were unusually high in November and "some homes that would have been started in December were instead started in November," Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight, wrote in a research report.

Housing starts surged nearly 9% in November.
Picking the sweet spot in real estate

At the same time, many builders put new projects on hold late last year amid uncertainty surrounding the government's first time homebuyer tax credit.

As a result, applications for building permits plunged in September and October, which in turn depressed housing starts in December.

"Now that the credit will benefit almost all homebuyers, not just first-timers, and will run until June 3, [builders] are preparing for increased demand," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

Indeed, the number of building permits issued during December jumped 10.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 653,000.

It was the biggest increase since June 2008 and surprised economists who had forecast a 0.7% decline in building permits.

Given the surge in building permits during December, "starts should now be expected to rebound strongly over the next few months," Shepherdson said.

Still, many builders remain worried about the strength and sustainability of a recovery in housing with unemployment at 10% and a large number of foreclosed homes still on the market, York said.

On Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders said its index of builder confidence declined one point to 15 in January.

cnnmoney.com By Ben Rooney, staff reporter

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Trends and Demogrpaphics for our Nation

January 20, 2010

Arun Barman, Research Economist

Understanding population flows within a state or region can help REALTORS® better understand trends in the housing market. Changes in statewide population are a result of either natural growth (births minus deaths) or through migration (international and domestic). Despite the economic downturn that has plagued the housing market, population continues to rise through more births than deaths and migration from abroad. Overall, the rate of growth in the U.S. was 0.86. The Census Bureau computes population estimates as well as the rates of change of the different components of population change. This data allows for some interesting state-to-state comparisons. Also, it comes out in a more timely fashion than other Census data products which often lag the market by years (http://www.census.gov/popest/states/NST-EST2009-ratecmpchg.html).


Despite a deep recession, some states still had considerable population growth. Wyoming, Utah, and Texas were the biggest population gainers with growth of more than 2 percent between July 2008 and July 2009. Michigan and Maine each actually saw population loss over the same period. Colorado and D.C. also saw strong population growth. The D.C. market has been helped by stronger federal spending leading to a more stable job market than other parts of the country.


Looking back over the decade, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah all grew by more than 20 percent, while Michigan and Rhode Island grew by less than one percent. The growth of cities like Las Vegas and Phoenix has contributed to the population growth of their respective states. Louisiana's population numbers suffered in part as a result of Hurricane Katrina, and Michigan's growth was stunted by continued job losses in the automobile industry.

The following statistics deal with growth rates per 1,000 people which allow comparisons between states; and should not be confused with absolute numbers. Looking at the birth rate in a population for instance may show which states tend to have a higher rate of household formation.


A large part of the high population growth rate in 2008-2009 in Utah and Texas can be attributed to a high birth rate in those states. Idaho, Alaska, and Arizona also were among the top five states in terms of births per 1,000 people. Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire ranked at the bottom of the list.


Migration rates are also interesting to look at in gauging home buyer demand. There are two types of migration that the Census Bureau's statistics track - international and domestic. Both types are important to consider when anticipating demand in the home buying market as people often look to purchase new homes when moving to a new area. Florida, California, New Jersey, Nevada, and Arizona lead in terms of international migration rates. In absolute numbers, California had by far the most international migrants followed by Texas and Florida.


In terms of domestic migration, Wyoming, D.C. and Colorado had the highest rates. In absolute numbers Texas had the largest number of domestic migrants followed by North Carolina. Michigan had the most negative rate of domestic migration, that is, the largest. In absolute numbers, California, New York and Michigan had largest number of people leave the state via domestic migrations.

International Migration per 1,000 people
California 4.5

Regionally, the West and South have the highest population growth. Higher birth rates in both help contribute, as well as positive domestic migration. The West and the Northeast have the strongest international migration rates. The Midwest suffers from a negative net migration.






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Ken Webb - Realtor
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Federal Mortgage Modification Plan Disappointing

The Obama administration announced Friday that its much-lauded mortgage modification plan has had a disappointing start, helping far fewer Americans stay in their homes than originally hoped.

Intended to bolster struggling homeowners, the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) has permanently helped only 66,000 homeowners out of 4 million that may be eligible.

As foreclosures are expected to rise from 2.8 million in 2009 to 3 million in 2010, analysts expect the Obama administration to modify the modification program to keep it from becoming another major political issue in a year when Democrats are facing a growing anti-spending sentiment among the voting public.

“HAMP is running into issues of too few permanent modifications, and re-default performance is expected to be poor," Barclays Capital said in a recent research note to clients.

Treasury Department officials said Friday that more than 900,000 homeowners have signed up for trial modifications and the program has yielded “measurable success.” The conversion rate from trial to permanent modification, however, is only about 15 percent.
So what's hampering HAMP?

One problem reported by the Treasury Department is that only 75 percent of homeowners are able to stay current on their new payments for a three month trial period. What’s more, the Obama administration and mortgage servicers say homeowners aren’t fully completing the needed documentation proving income and hardship.

But homeowners are blaming servicers, who get paid for successfully lowering monthly payments. One dissatisfied applicant used the Huffington Post to register his dissatisfaction – and shed some light on why the program may need to be fixed.

Calling the program a “cruel joke,” HAMP applicant Craig Vale said “you are falsely led to believe that some help may actually come your way, but in truth the banks want little to do with you or the HAMP program.”

Mr. Vale claims he’s saving less than $2 a day on his reworked mortgage, calling the entire thing a “failure.” The irony,” he adds, “is that my bank will tell uncle Sam they ‘successfully’ modified my mortgage.”
More than $1.5 billion saved

Treasury officials said that 854,000 homeowners taking part in both trial and permanent modification requests have saved more than $1.5 billion on their mortgage payments, receiving an average reduction of $516 a month.

US banks, insurance companies and carmakers, meanwhile, have received over $373 billion in taxpayer bailouts, writes the HuffPo's Shahien Nasiripour.

In his weekly Saturday address, President Obama vowed to keep up the pressure on US banks to do right by the American taxpayer, who, after all, bailed out much of the financial industry over the last 18 months.

Saying that, “We’re not going to let Wall Street take the money and run,” Obama vowed to make sure that banks can never put the US economy at risk again.

By Patrik Jonsson

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Your Most Current Housing Trends eNewsletter- Jan 13, 2010

Happy New Year - Here Me GO, into the New Year, 2010!

Welcome to the most current Housing Trends eNewsletter. This eNewsletter is specially designed for you, with national and local housing information that you may find useful whether you’re in the market for a home, thinking about selling your home, or just interested in homeowner issues in general.

Please click on this link to view the JANUARY-2010 Newsletter Newsletter Housing Trends eNewsletter:
http://kenwebb.housingtrendsenewsletter.com?Newsletter_ID=239&Period_ID=181

The Housing Trends eNewsletter contains the latest information from the National Association of REALTORS®, the U.S. Census Bureau, Realtor.org reports and other sources.

It also includes press releases with charts and videos, key market indicators and real estate sales and price statistics, a video message by a nationally recognized economist, maps, mortgage rates and calculators, consumer articles, plus local neighborhood information and more.

If you are interested in determining the value of your home, click the “Home Evaluator” link for a free evaluation report:

http://kenwebb.housingtrendsenewsletter.com/dispContent.cfm?loadid=2&loadtype=0

Sound decisions can only be made with accurate and reliable information, and I am happy to be a trusted resource for you. Thank you for the opportunity to provide you with this monthly eNewsletter, and I look forward to answering any questions you may have and to the opportunity to be your REALTOR® in the future.


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Ken Webb - Realtor
OCAR, NAR, CAR
F1RST TEAM
Real Estate
Email: kenwebb@firstteam.com
Phone/Text: (949) 243-6649
DRE Lic # 01844181

SEARCH JUST LIKE AN AGENT
http://www.kwrealestate.listingbook.com

CURRENT REAL ESTATE NEWS
http://kenwebbkwrealestate.blogspot.com


UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATES ON TWITTER
http://twitter.com/KW_Real_Estate

STATE WIDE AND LOCAL REAL ESTATE FACTS & FIGURES
http://kenwebb.housingtrendsenewsletter.com/

"The finest compliment I could ever receive is a
referral from my friends and clients"